For the first time, the control room (cabina di regia) for the period from December 7 to 13 witnessed a reversal of trend in the transmission index throughout Italy, compared to the previous week, with three regions returning to a transmissibility level that is compatible with a type 2 scenario (Lazio, Lombardy, and Veneto). This occurs in a European context characterised by a new increase in the number of cases in some European countries (e.g., in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany) and a failure of decrease of cases, with a stabilised  epidemic curve in others (e.g., in France and Spain).

Incidence in Italy is still too high, and the impact of the epidemic is still heavy in most areas of the country.

This situation does not allow for loosening the measures taken over the past few weeks and even requires a reinforcement of such measures in some areas of the country.

During the week of monitoring, a Moderate or High risk continued to be observed in the majority of Regions/PPAs, with only five Regions/PPAs at Low risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic. This trend calls for adopting and respecting measures rigorously, thus avoiding lowering the level of vigilance in behaviour.

Although it is a complex matter to predict the impact of the Christmas holiday period in the current situation, the increased mobility and interpersonal interaction typical of social gatherings during this season could lead to a significant increase in transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The consequence of this situation could be a rapid increase in cases, towards potentially higher levels than those observed in November, in a context where the impact of the epidemic on health workers, services and the population is still remarkably high.

It is therefore recommended that Regions/PPAAs raise mitigation measures, according to their own level of risk, as envisaged in the document "Prevention and response to COVID-19: strategy evolution and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period" issued by the Ministry of Health through a memo on 2/10/2020 (Prot. 32732) and described in this report.

Therefore, even during the holiday period, the population is invited to limit interactions with non-cohabiting persons to those that are strictly necessary, particularly excluding gatherings in indoor and outdoor environments. The population is also encouraged to avoid situations in which it is not possible to comply with the recommended distance measures and to adopt a rigorous approach to the appropriate use of masks and to hand hygiene.

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Data di pubblicazione: 22 dicembre 2020, ultimo aggiornamento 24 dicembre 2020