In this critical phase of the epidemic, with a widespread circulation of viral variants with higher transmissibility, there are signs of a countertrend in the epidemiological evolution, which could herald a new rapid widespread increase in the number of cases over the coming weeks, if mitigation measures are not rigorously reinforced/increased both at national and regional level. In some contexts, a new rapid increase in the number of cases could quickly lead to an overload of health services, as it would be set in a context where the baseline incidence is still extremely high, and many people are still being admitted for COVID-19 in the critical area.

The incidence at the national level is essentially stationary and the average Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was 0.95 (range 0.86- 1.06), with a slight increase compared to the previous week and with a higher limit of one.

Two Regions/PPAAs are classified as high risk (PA Bolzano/Bozen, Umbria), ten as moderate risk (of which five are at high risk of progression to high risk in the coming weeks) and nine as low risk. Transmission is worse than last week, with seven Regions/PBAs having a punctual Rt greater than 1, even at the lower limit compatible with a type 2 scenario.

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Data di pubblicazione: 16 febbraio 2021, ultimo aggiornamento 16 febbraio 2021

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