The incidence at national level remains above the value of 130 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over 7 days and, in at least one of the two existing COVID-19 surveillance flows coordinated by the Ministry of Health and the ISS, 13 regions show an increasing trend of cases.

The transmissibility, although on average similar to the last survey, shows this week a range that goes up to more than 1 in its upper value. In two regions the transmissibility is in counter-trend with respect to the rest of the country with an Rt significantly above the threshold of 1 and 5 regions report the point value around 1 with values between 0.95 and 1.03.

There is a slight general worsening of the epidemic with an increase in the number of regions classified as high risk (3 vs 1) and a reduction in the number of low risk regions this week (7 vs 10) in a worrying context due to the discovery of viral variants of interest for public health in multiple Italian regions that may lead to a rapid increase in incidence.

At this delicate stage of the epidemic, these initial counter-trend signs could be a prelude to a new rapid widespread increase in the number of cases in the coming weeks, if adequate mitigation measures are not rigorously implemented at both national and regional levels. The current picture at national level implies strong inter-regional variations. In some contexts, a new rapid increase in the number of cases could quickly lead to an overload of health services as it would be set in a context where the baseline incidence is still very high and there are still many people admitted for COVID-19 in the critical area.

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Data di pubblicazione: 9 febbraio 2021, ultimo aggiornamento 9 febbraio 2021

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